CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-12-15T01:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-12-15T01:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35664/-1
CME Note: Bright, 3-part CME visible to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery starting around 2024-12-15T01:25Z. The source of this CME is a long filament stretched from W10 to W60 along the S25 latitude that erupts starting around 2024-12-14T21:50Z with full lift off by 2024-12-14T23:50Z as seen in GOES SUVI 304. Associated moving/opening field lines are visible along the SW in GOES SUVI 284. Sympathetic eruption appears to occur around/within AR13924 which is visible as brightening in GOES SUVI 195. Additionally, post-eruptive arcades are visible in GOES SUVI 195. | ARRIVAL NOTE: Arrival characterized by an increase in B_total from approx. 6nT to 20nT, reaching a peak of approx. 31nT at 2024-12-17T08:39Z. Accompanied by an increase in solar wind speed from 390 km/s to sustained peak speeds of approx. 670 km/s, an increase in density, and an increase in temperature. The temperature decreased around 2024-12-17T09:45Z. There was a possible additional but weak arrival at approx. 2024-12-17T18:40Z, characterized by another increase in B-total from 11nT back up to a sustained 14nT, accompanied by another increase in temperature, decrease in density, and increase of solar wind speed from ~510 km/s to above 600 km/s, along with a period of predominantly negative Bz which reached a lowest negative value of -9nT at 2024-12-17T23:16Z. The arrival signature observed at L1 at 2024-12-17T04:40Z is suspected to be the combined arrival of CME 2024-12-15T01:25Z and CME 2024-12-15T04:23Z, along with additional influence from a coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-12-17T04:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-19T02:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
expected arrival time: 2024-12-19T02:00:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 3 max_estimated_peak_K: 5 probability_of_arrival: 95 SIDC URSIGRAM Issued: 2024 Dec 15 1231 UTC SIDC URSIGRAM 41215 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 15 Dec 2024, 1230UT Coronal mass ejections: A wide coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery around 00:45 UTC on December 15, lifting off the southwest quadrant. It is most likely associated with a large filament eruption around 23:40 UTC on December 14, west of SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924). The CME is propagating to the southwest with an estimated speed of 450 km/s. Current analysis suggests that a glancing blow may arrive at Earth in the UTC morning on December 19.Lead Time: 41.38 hour(s)
Difference: -45.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-15T11:17Z
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